Abstract：Based on time-varying parameter state space model, using the quarterly data from 1999 to 2016, this paper measures the time-varying characteristics of the impact on urban residents’ consumption of China’s housing price. The results show that on the whole housing prices present a weak wealth effect. Before 2004, the housing prices rising had a strong volatility effect on consumption. After 2004, the effect in our country was rising first, then began to decline after 2013, which roughly presents an inverted “U” type trend. This shows that the crowding-out impact of house prices on consumption has been increasing rapidly in recent years. In view of this, from the “crowding-out effect” transmission mechanism, the government should adjust house price carefully and steadily, increase affordable housing supply, and improve the income of the migrant population in the process of urbanization.
2018, Vol. 32 
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