Abstract Based on the structural change analysis of economic growth and its conditional volatility, augmented AR(p)-GARCH(1,1)-M model is used to test the periodical impact of macroeconomic fluctuation on economic growth and the influence of subprime crisis with data from Chinese monthly growth rate of industrial added value in 1993-2014. Results indicate that there are two and three structural changes for economic growth and macroeconomic fluctuation respectively in the sample range; in the post-crisis era, the economic growth rate is low and the macroeconomic fluctuation returns to “Great Moderation”; considering the structural changes of mean and conditional volatility, macroeconomic fluctuation has positive and negative effects on economic growth significantly in the first and second stage, but insignificant positive effect appears in the third stage; the subprime crisis not only cuts down the economic growth rate, but also increases the macro volatility and raises its positive effect from the macroeconomic fluctuation in the third phase of growth rate. Therefore, under the “New Normal” circumstance, macroeconomic fluctuation resulted from economic restructuring should be tolerated to some extent to achieve certain economic growth rate.
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