Abstract A comprehensive analysis and scientific understanding of the direction and rhythm of the tax policy of China is not only related to the promotion of the government macro-control capability and the ability of managing economy, but is also the key to maintaining a growing, cost-effective and sustainable economy. Based on endogenous growth model of the innovation-driven economic growth, this thesis constructed the theoretical framework of the tax impact on economic growth and then adopted MS-VAR model and used China quarterly data to study the impact of tax policy on economic growth from the bilateral perspective of both the total volume and the structure. The results show that: when the model was in regime 1, both the total amount of the tax and the structural effect exhibited the non-Keynesian feature, but not evident. However, when the model is in regime 2, tax impact on the total amount of economic growth exhibit Keynesian effects, but there is significant difference between commodity tax and income tax on the economic growth. Still, the commodity tax and economic growth is positively related and the income tax negatively related. In addition, both the total effects and the structural effects of tax show so strong stability in maintaining their respective regimes that there is a small probability for them to transform from one regime to the other. The conclusion of this paper has remarkable theoretical and practical significance for the government to innovate its macro-control mode and make the tax policy more prospective, more targeted and more effective.
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