Abstract Since 1990, Chinese export witnesses great cyclical fluctuations, which impacts Chinese macro-economy greatly. To illustrate Chinese export cyclical fluctuation, this paper chooses leading, coincident and lagging indicators from data of China and its trading partners at first. Secondly, this paper constructs Chinese export climate index with the Principal Component Analysis, then analyzes the causes resulting in different export fluctuation periods. The analysis shows that government policy and investment are the main factors causing Chinese export cycle fluctuation during the earlier and middle period of 1990s. However, the external factors, such as world economy cycle, industry specialization trend and regional political & economic environment, impact Chinese export cycle greatly from the later period of 1990s to now. Further, this paper offers some policy suggestions on the issue how to ease the impacts of export cycle fluctuation on Chinese macro-economy.
|
Received: 09 November 2006
|
|
|
|