Abstract: This article uses the micro data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement (JSTAR), and the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA) to measure the additional labor capacity of elderly people in China, Japan, and South Korea based on their health status. By employing out-of-sample estimation methods, the study finds that the estimated labor capacity of individuals in the three countries who exceed the statutory earliest retirement age based on their health status is higher than the actual labor force participation rate of current elderly workers, indicating that the elderly population in these countries possesses a certain level of additional labor capacity. In terms of additional labor time, the estimated figures for Chinese men aged 55~74 and women aged 50~74 are 6.26 years and 6.43 years, respectively; for Japanese men and women aged 60~74, they are 5.04 years and 3.91 years, respectively; and for Korean men and women aged 60~74, they are 4.94 years and 3.09 years, respectively. Secondly, an increase in educational attainment can enhance the additional labor capacity among the elderly population. In comparison to Japan and South Korea, China's elderly cohort exhibits the largest disparities in labor capacity due to educational heterogeneity. Thirdly, improvements in health status significantly augment the likelihood of labor force participation, particularly with a pronounced effect on Chinese males. This study provides valuable references and evidence for the scientific formulation of delayed retirement policies and proactive measures to address population aging.
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