Abstract This paper aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between economic activity and municipal solid waste (MSW) generation from the source, so as to ascertain whether decoupling is occurring or not. Based on a panel data of 31 Chinese provinces during the period between 2004 and 2016, the dynamic relationship between MSW generation per capita and urban residents' consumption was analyzed by employing the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). After spatial factors are incorporated, results show that there is even more significant and steady inverted “N” shaped WKC curve between them, and there appears relative decoupling, though not absolute decoupling. More importantly, the predicted peak of MSW generation per capita will be delayed after considering the spatial effects. MSW generation per capita will continue to increase in the coming 30 years. How to improve the efficiency of resource, so as to realize the absolute decoupling of economic development and MSW generation is a major issue that the policy authorities must consider fully.
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