Abstract：With regard to China’s economic and financial characteristics in new era, this paper constructs the China’s Financial Stress Index with financial market leading indicators to measure China’s financial risk during January 2002 and June 2016. Besides, this paper utilizes SVAR model to study the dynamic effect between financial stress and macro-economy. The results show that China is in the phase of high financial risk now, and it is likely to face higher long-term financial stress. The financial risk itself is inertial and has a significant negative influence on the confidence of economic players and the real estate market. The confidence of economic players and the fluctuation in the real estate market obviously reflect the financial stress. Such reflection will last for a long time and the influence of financial stress goes stronger with the lapse of time and has an obvious lagged effect.
秦建文 王涛. 新常态下中国金融压力与宏观经济动态效应研究[J]. 浙江工商大学学报, 2017, 31(3): 75-87.
QIN Jianwen WANG Tao. Research on the Dynamic Effect of China’s Financial Stress and the Macro-economy in the New Era. Journal of Zhejing Gongshang University, 2017, 31(3): 75-87.
2017, Vol. 31 
浙公网安备 33011802000512号