Abstract:When the generation of post-80s entered the labor market during 2003—2013, the China economic growth presented an inverted U type track. When the generations of post-90s and post-00s enter the labor market, growth will have dramatically declined. With post-90s and post-00s entering into the labor market, population bonus begins to disappear after 2016. To prevent Chinese economic fastly falling into demographic cliff, the paper evaluate the delay retirement and fertility policy, and we found that, when post- 90s and post-00s are entering into the labor market, delaying retirement is better than not, maintaining fertility policy unchanged is better than a relaxed fertility policy, while adjusting the retirement system brings about great effect. Delayed retirement policies need to be performed immediately, fertility policy is important, but not urgent.
杨华磊 周晓波 王辉. 人口世代更迭与经济增长速度:兼析新常态下的人口政策选择[J]. 浙江工商大学学报, 2015, (6): 97-106.
YANG Hualei ZHOU Xiaobo WANG Hui. Population Generations and Economic Growth: An Analysis on Population Policy Choices under the New Normal. Journal of Zhejing Gongshang University, 2015, (6): 97-106.