Based on the convergence analysis theory of economic growth, carbon emissions convergence model is constructed. Based on the China’s provincial carbon emissions panel data, the paper measures and calculates the emission amount in different provinces or regions; heterogeneous convergence of each provincial carbon emissions and their determinant factors are analyzed empirically based on the panel data model with variying parameters which can overcome the disadvantages of measuring econometric research by constant parameter. The results show that for carbon dioxide emissions, there is no absolute convergence but an obviously conditional heterogeneous convergence for the provincial carbon emissions. Different levels of per capita GDP are an important factor to determine carbon emissions convergence of each province or region, and the impact of population scale together with the industrial structure on carbon emissions convergence is different due to regional disparity. The formulation of entire carbon emission reduction policy of Chinese government must fully consider the heterogeneity of carbon emissions convergence differences of various provinces. The policies and measures to reduce the provincial emission should be fully aware of determinant factors such as the regional economic development level, industrial structure and population diversity. Based on the considerations of long-term effective policy, the family planning policy on controlling the population size should be executed continuously and it will exert positive effect on carbon emissions control of different provinces and regions.