At the beginning of 2020, the government launched the policy of enterprise social insurance premium reduction and exemption in response to the COVID-19 epidemic situation. Based on the new Keynes DGE and SGE theories, we construct a simulation analysis framework to test the macroeconomic effect of the policy. The results show that: first, the periodic social security fee relief policy is pointed and effective, and the policy has a strong short-term stimulus and long-term positive trend adjustment effect on the main variables of economic fundamentals.At the same time, the policy has a convergence effect with the financial expenditure expansion and interest rate decline relief policy. Secondly, it is difficult for China's economic fundamentals to support the long-term reduction and exemption of social security fees. Based on the analysis of the trend and stability, we should be cautious about the long-term expansion of the policy.
肖尧 彭桥 魏杨. 社保费阶段性减免政策的宏观经济效应[J]. 商业经济与管理, 2020, 40(9): 70-81.
XIAO Yao PENG Qiao WEI Yang. The Macroeconomic Effect of the Policy of Phased Social Insurance Premiums Relief and Exemption. Journal of Business Economics, 2020, 40(9): 70-81.